Prognozis

Prognozis is a Russian-language forecasting marketplace. It assesses the likelihood of future
events: elections, sports matches, premieres, corporate and regulatory decisions.

How it works: Each event has possible outcomes, and each outcome has a price.
The price is the probability estimate: if "yes" is worth 63 out of 100, participants collectively believe the
event is 63 percent likely. By purchasing a share of the outcome, you move this estimate. If you're right, the share is redeemed at full price; if you're wrong, it's lost.

⚠️ The game is played with the internal currency—votes. Real money is not involved in the system:
it can't be deposited, withdrawn, or exchanged. Votes are awarded upon registration
and are restored over time.

What's inside:
• Hundreds of forecasts in 18 categories – politics, economics, sports, technology, culture
• A feed tailored to your interests
• Price chart and probability history
• PrognozisAI analysis: what's happening in the news and how it affects your odds
• Leaderboard with calibration score – how accurate are your forecasts, not just how many you guessed correctly
• Personal forecasts: anyone can suggest an event, and it's moderated
• Private rooms for debating with friends

Why is this necessary? Opinions about the future are easy to express and easy to forget. Prognozis forces you
to write them down in a measurable form and then honestly compare them with what actually happened. Over time,
you'll see not only how many times you got it right, but also how accurately you assess your
confidence – this is calibration.

The project has been running since April 2026. The app is a shell for the prognozis.ru website.
The data and account are shared: start on your phone, continue in the browser.